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The Only Three Questions That Count: Investing by Knowing What Others Don't, by Ken Fisher Jennifer Chou
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Review
"This book is quite simply the single best tome on investing that I have read in years." (Norm Conley, TheStreet.com, January 15, 2007) "Here's [an investment book] you're going to want to read. And when you're done, you're going to want to read it again." (Don Luskin, SmartMoney.com, October 27, 2006) "In an increasingly unquestioning world, Mr. Fisher has a refreshingly contrarian take on pretty much every subject you care to mention." (Steve Johnson, Financial Times, January 15, 2007) "[Ken Fisher’s] new book, an illuminating and enjoyable read, is a tutorial on how to beat the market by thinking like a scientist: with an open, inquisitive mind." (Andrew Pitts, Money Observer, January 22, 2007)" "…a refreshingly contrarian take on pretty much every subject…" (The Financial Times, January 2007) "an illuminating and enjoyable read." (Money Observer, January 2007) "…aims to show the investors the way things really…a process that involves a keen examination of the actuality, coupled with a good dose of common sense." (Wealth Management, 1st August 2007)
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From the Inside Flap
Ken Fisher questions authority. He challenges the conventional wisdom of investing, overturns glib theories with hard facts, and blows up complacent beliefs about money and markets. But the authority he challenges most of all is his own—because challenging yourself, Fisher says, is the key to successful investing. In today's competitive market environment, the best way to achieve investment success is by knowing something that others don't. But many of us, amateurs and professionals alike, believe we don't or can't know what others don't—so we continue to make market bets based on "conventional wisdom." In The Only Three Questions That Count, Fisher debunks the conventional market myths that many of our investment decisions are based upon, and reveals a precise methodology that will allow you to know what others don't. The methodology—which has helped Fisher achieve success throughout his long financial career—is as easy as asking three simple questions. The first question will help you see things the way they really are. The second question will help you see things that other investors often miss. Finally, the third question will help you understand your relationship with today's markets. The questions detailed throughout the book aren't what you might expect; they don't have to do with the market's P/E ratio or interest rate forecasts. Rather, they focus on helping you make better investment decisions by identifying what you can know—unique to you—that others do not. In the first three chapters of this groundbreaking guide, Fisher takes you through each question in detail. And from there, through numerous illustrative examples, he shows you how to put them to work in various ways. You'll learn how to use the questions to think about the overall market, different parts of the market, and even individual stocks. You'll also become familiar with how to apply them to interest rates, currencies, and many other investment areas. Fisher leaves no stone unturned as he explains how each of these three questions can help consistently improve your investment performance. Filled with in-depth insights, expert advice, and engaging anecdotes, The Only Three Questions That Count provides you with a dynamic strategy and set of tools that will give you a distinct edge over other investors.
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Product details
Hardcover: 480 pages
Publisher: Wiley; 1 edition (December 11, 2006)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 047007499X
ISBN-13: 978-0470074992
Product Dimensions:
6.5 x 1.6 x 9.3 inches
Shipping Weight: 1.7 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
Average Customer Review:
3.9 out of 5 stars
149 customer reviews
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
#1,296,750 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
Kenneth L. Fisher is the son of Philip A. Fisher, an investor and author of "Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits". Based on forecasts published in Forbes, Kenneth L. Fisher was ranked the number one most accurate market forecaster by CXO Advisory Group as of November, 2007. Fisher won a Bernstein Fabozzi/Jacobs Levy Outstanding Article Award for "Cognitive Biases in Market Forecast".The author shows that there are the following themes in behavioral finance and economics: heuristics when people make decisions based on approximate rules of thumb, not strictly rational analyses; framing, the way a problem or decision is presented to the decision maker will affect his action; and market inefficiencies, when there are explanations for observed market outcomes that are contrary to rational expectations and market efficiency. The author also analyzes loss aversion, which is the tendency for people strongly to prefer avoiding losses than acquiring gains. But the loss aversion is also gain aversion.The main idea of this book is to think differently to popular beliefs, and to not stick to any conviction. As an example, the author says about Warren Buffett that "a quality standing out about Mr. Buffet is his ability to morph". Kenneth L. Fisher encourages to constantly re-evaluate the rules that guide you to the decisions. He shows that that by analyzing the raw data you will be able figure out whether there may be a correlation between something that seems to be indisputable. By giving the graphs and figures, the authors shows that most popular beliefs are no then misleading myths, like "high P/E markets are riskier than low P/E markets" or "big government budget deficits are bad" or "a weak U.S. dollar is bad for stocks" or "higher oil prices are bad for stocks and the economy", and so on.The author's investment toolkit is the following: select an appropriate benchmark; analyze the benchmark's components and assign expected risk and return; and blend non-correlated or negatively correlated securities to moderate risk relative to expected return.The only drawback of the book is the author's inclination to repetitions. I would prefer to return to a prominent observation made only once in the book. A good example is "Buffett: The Making of an American Capitalist" by Roger Lowenstein. I will return to an outstanding statement simply by opening the page where this statement has been made. This is much better than encountering it again and again throughout the book. The voluminous appendices with the raw data in the end of the book are also not quite tree-friendly, in an age when this data is available in the internet.Ken Fisher's idea are very unique. There are lots of authors who write that U.S. national debt is bar or low P/E is good, Ken Fisher encourages you to star analyzing data by yourself and don't stick to popular beliefs. For example, the author teaches that high P/Es aren't more risky and tell you nothing, neither do low P/Es; while you're at it - pray for higher budget, current account, and trade deficits, they are all good for our economy and markets, debt is not bad. Debt is very good - and America could use more of it!This is hard to belief because popular myths speak the opposite, but what's why I like the author - for his uniqueness, and the author gives lots of data and references to make his points strong. This is unlike Robery Kyosaki or other popular author who simple speak (without any proof or reference) that high national debt will cause hyperinflation and you can use gold as a hedge. Ken Fisher teaches that gold is a terrible equity hedge and a miserable investment; gold can't tell you anything about inflation, but the long bond can. What's funny is that there are points where Ken Fisher and Robery Kyosaki agree with each other, e.g. savings and compounding interest does not make you any richer and why investing in cash or bonds might be the riskiest thing you ever do. Bill Gates, the world's richest man, never saved a dime.Ken Fisher shows you how to be a statistician in one 3-minute session - using only Excel and Yahoo! Finance.The author also writes about miscellaneous topics, e.g. why covered calls - same as naked puts, and so on, so you will find a lot of unique and thought provoking information throughout the book.You may disagree with the author, but because of the uniqueness of his ideas, the book deserves reading it.I don't understand why such brilliant books receive four star average rating at amazon while mediocre ones frequent have five stars. Maybe the reason is that this book is not for a general reader, but for the non-conformist readers.I also recommend the two subsequent books by Ken Fisher in addition to this book; but this one is the best.
I was late reading this book as it has already been out a few years. However, that was my loss as the title hides more than what is inside and what the book and author provides the reader. On the whole, the author turns conventional wisdom on its head then left and right throughout the text. If you have been investing for sometime, then you may already know some of the falsehoods that Wall Street and your broker preaches. Irrespective or even if you are aware of the falsehoods, there are many that I am of the belief you will not know about and recommend reading Ken Fisher's fine book.I kept this review short as there are plenty of other fine reviews available, but this book will indeed expand or help improve on your investment insights. Broken down to its core, the author's recommendation and advice is to adopt a benchmark, preferably global, and overweight or underweight it when asking the three questions while avoiding the financial myths. This should provide you, the investor, a slight advantage over the market. Though it sounds very simple, we know the market is the great discounter and loves confusing both novices and professionals. This book will help the novices from stepping in a few potholes and also should help the professional turn over a new leaf or two. Enjoy :)
This book won't give you any details on how to beat the market. That's not what Fischer is out to teach. In fact, he disavows the Price to Sales Ratio strategy which he invented a couple decades earlier. No, you won't have your hand held if you read this book. You will be forced to do your own research and determine your own strategy. The only guidance Fischer provides for the reader is to aim broadly across multiple market segments, but even this recommendation comes with caveats and second guessing.Caveats and second guessing is the name of the game. Like any scientific inquiry, the first step is to tear away any and all myths that do not conform to reality. What do I believe that is not true? Fischer spends a lot of time showing how certain market beliefs are not based on fact. Hold onto your seat as he elegantly proves that stocks with high P/E ratios are not necessarily overpriced and risky, that America is not far enough in debt, and that the bigger the government budget deficit, the better.Once you've figured out what is not true, you can focus on what is true. What can be understood that is not commonly understood? This, by the way, is the primary means of selecting portfolio allocations. This is about as close as Fischer comes to explaining a stock selection strategy, but the point is not about selecting stocks. It is all about figuring out what commonly-held myths can tell us about how the market will likely respond in various circumstances. It is not about being contrarian, but rather about being able to see through the mythology and grasping the core truths. Once you have a clear idea of what is *really* to be expected rather than what is *commonly* expected to happen, you can effectively arrange your portfolio to take advantage of that uncommon knowledge.The third point of the book is about how to effectively use the information from the first and second points without getting humiliated. Fischer contends that our brains are not designed for sparring with the Market. We fear rapid drops, linger too long in bountiful pastures, and we are always seeking the land of milk and honey. This pre-programmed thinking is all wrong. It causes investors to panic and sell at lows, hold on too long during the onset of a downturn, and jump into already hot markets that are about to fizzle out. By using the cognitive capabilities of your brain, Fischer argues, it is possible to avoid the traps that the instinctual side of your brain is setting.With wit, confidence, and reams of data, Fischer has put together a book that will unfortunately not impact much of the investing world. Simply, the application of the three questions over an extended period of time is hard work. For those who take the lessons taught in the book and put them to use, the rewards ought to be great. But take heart, since most people will ignore or forget what they learn here, there will always be investors on the negative end of the returns spectrum. After all, it would impossible for everyone to have market-beating returns. Let's let it be just us.
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